Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
